Industry Outlook 101©

current industrial and economic condition and future outlook in one page

                                                                                         by Martin Chu
                                                                                            First created May 1 2010
                                                                                            Last Update July 21  2011
Please note that all data presented here are gathered from public domain and only for veiwers' information and analysis only.

The accuracy of all information listed here was not wholly verified by author of this website.  It is very important for readers review and validate all data and information in this webpage and derive your own understandings or conclusions!

Information without careful digestion and utilization is just a mass of trash!
Wrong information and incorrect conclusion/decision can also lead to
lose of money and sleep!

Information or database source Description about information or database Trustworthiness  and Accuracy
of data
of the published data
Current moving trend evaluated in 6 month period Last Reviewed and update date
US Department of Labor unemployment number
US unemployment and Consumer price Index numbers
More or less No Slightly UP
9.1% in May 2011
Up in last data release
US Department of Commerce
US Department of Commerce Not reviewed yet!
Quarter to Quarter growth in real GDP from(Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarter to Quarter Growth in real GDP
Quarter-to-Quarter GDP growth chart
Somewhat OK No  Growth rate slow down but still positive! 2011.02.29
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
National Economic Account GDP number.

Somewhat OK No Not reviewed yet!
Semiconductor BOOK TO BILL Ratio (1)  Current USA semiconductor Book to Bill Ratio.
Somwhat No Now in downward trend  after May 2011
(ncreased in March to 0.95 from 0.87 in February,
decreased in May to 0.97, from 0.98 in April,
decreased in June to 0.94 from 0.97 in May,
Dow Jones Industrial Index
Dow Jones Industrial Index chart
Yes Yes Top around May 2011. Now seems to be in Downward direction 2011.06.29
Dow Jones Utility Index Dow Jones Utility Index chart Yes Yes Top around May 15 2011. Now seems to be in Downward direction 2011.06.29
Nasdaq Index Nasdaq Index chart Yes Yes Top around May 30 2011. Now seems to be in Downward direction 2011.06.29
S&P 500 Index Standard and Poor Index chart Yes Yes Top around May 30 2011. Now seems to be in Downward direction 2011.06.29
Russel 2000 Index Russel 2000 Index chart Yes Yes Top around May 30 2011. Now seems to be in Downward direction 2011.06.29
Fedral Rate Current Federal rate
Prime Rate Current Prime rate Yes Yes
Mortgage Rate
US various mortgage rate.
Yes Yes UP 2011.02.19
Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Somewhat Not Accurate. Yes +0.2% in May 2011
Producer Price Index (PPI)

Somewhat Not Accurate. Yes +0.2%(p) in May 2011
USDA Economic Research Service USDA Economic Research Database. Not reviewed yet!
A web site dedicated to macro-economic data. This site has a lot of useful and official numbers. 
Not reviewed yet!
National Bureau of Economic Research (NRER)
National Bureau of Economic Research history database.
Not reviewed yet!
National Bureau of Economic Research (NRER) overall data National Bureau of Economic Research overall database. Not reviewed yet!
US census Database US Census Database Not reviewed yet!
US census Database US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract of the United States Not reviewed yet!
Federal Reserve Bank of ST. Louis (FRED)
Federal Reserve Bank of ST. Louis  (FRED) website
Not reviewed yet!
Federal Reserve Bank of ST. Louis (ALFRED) Federal Reserve Bank of ST. Louis  (Archiva Federal Reserve Economic Data ALFRED) website Not reviewed yet!
Historical Semiconductor Industry associates (SIA) book to bill ratio chart and data STATS: Global Billings Report History  from SIA (3-month moving averages and actuals) data since 1976  Not reviewed yet!
News Release from Bureau of Labor Statistics Official government new release about Current Employment situation  Not reviewed yet!
US treasury reports on National Debt data  The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It Yes No. UP 2011.02.19

The blue color means GREEN light, the red color means RED light or ALERT and need some attention! It is just like traffic light in our daily life.

Major Foreign Holders of United States TREASURY SECURITIES (in billions of dollars)  in 12 month period.

Major Foreign Holders of United States Treasury Securities from BRINT

Major Foreign Holders United States Department   From BRINT Institute

Major Foreign Holders United States (Department US Treasure TIC format). This is somewhat official record!

How Fitch, Moody's and S&;P rate each country's credit rating. How trustworthy are those data?????

US Inflation data   

Historical US inflation data
BRINT Institute  Very good for researching information Intelligent Decision Making

All Economic Indicators and useful data sources
News Release from Bureau of Labor Statistics
Quarter to Quarter growth in real GDP from(Bureau of Economic Analysis
Inflection rate prediction
CPI data from year 2000 to now
Historical CPI data in table form
Market cap for each individual Nation
Country Default risk as measured by CDS prices
on Nov 2008
Country Default risk as measured by CDS prices on March 2009
Country Default risk as measured by CDS prices on Dec 19 2009
Country Default risk as measured by CDS prices on April 11 2010

State Default Risk as measured by CDS prices  in chart format

The number next to each state represents the cost per year to insure $10,000 worth of state bonds for 5 years. The higher the price, the higher the default risk.

Percent of World Market Cap by Country in 2008
2009 Year to date performance for individual nation I
2009 Year to date performance for individual nation II The Best Insider info on the Web--Period!
InvestorLinks - The World's Premier Comprehensive Financial Resource Website
Hoover's Online - Financial Resource Guide and Stocks Director

Yet another list to understand US current economical situation
(not complete yet!)
Description of the indicator Current published number
Economic Indicators: Overview
Economic Indicators: Beige Book
Economic Indicators: Business Outlook Survey
Economic Indicators: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Economic Indicators: Consumer Credit Report
Economic Indicators: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Economic Indicators: Durable Goods Report
Economic Indicators: Employee Cost Index (ECI)
Economic Indicators: Employee Situation Report
Economic Indicators: Existing Home Sales
Economic Indicators: Factory Orders Report
Economic Indicators: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Economic Indicators: Housing Starts
Economic Indicators: Industrial Production
Economic Indicators: Jobless Claims Report
Economic Indicators: Money Supply
Economic Indicators: Mutual Fund Flows
Economic Indicators: Non-Manufacturing Report
Economic Indicators: Personal Income and Outlays
Economic Indicators: Producer Price Index (PPI)
Economic Indicators: Productivity Report
Economic Indicators: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Economic Indicators: Retail Sales Report
Economic Indicators: Trade Balance Report
Economic Indicators: Wholesale Trade Report

2002 Economic Census  Summary Statistics by 2002 NAICS  United States
Data based on Geographic Area Series reports. Table includes only establishments of firms with payroll. Non employers are shown separately. Introductory text includes scope, methodology, non-sampling error, and confidentiality protection. For descriptions of column headings and rows (industries), click on the appropriate underlined element in the table.

Description Estab-
Sales, receipts
or shipments
21 Mining 24,087 182,911,093 21,173,895 477,840
22 Utilities 17,103 398,907,044 42,417,830 663,044
23 Construction 710,307 1,196,555,587 254,292,144 7,193,069
31-33 Manufacturing 350,828 3,916,136,712 576,170,541 14,699,536
42 Wholesale trade 435,521 4,634,755,112 259,653,080 5,878,405
44-45 Retail trade 1,114,637 3,056,421,997 302,113,581 14,647,675
48-49 Transportation & warehousing 199,618 382,152,040 115,988,733 3,650,859
51 Information 137,678 891,845,956 194,670,163 3,736,061
52 Finance & insurance 440,268 2,803,854,868 377,790,172 6,578,817
53 Real estate & rental & leasing 322,815 335,587,706 60,222,584 1,948,657
54 Professional, scientific, & technical services 771,305 886,801,038 376,090,052 7,243,505
55 Management of companies & enterprises 49,308 107,064,264 178,996,060 2,605,292
56 Administrative & support & waste management & remediation service 350,583 432,577,580 206,439,329 8,741,854
61 Educational services 49,319 30,690,707 10,164,378 430,164
62 Health care & social assistance 704,526 1,207,299,734 495,845,829 15,052,255
71 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 110,313 141,904,109 45,169,117 1,848,674
72 Accommodation & food services 565,590 449,498,718 127,554,483 10,120,951
81 Other services (except public administration) 537,576 307,049,461 82,954,939 3,475,310

Different Sectors of the Economy
Though agriculture is a major industry, yet its contribution is only 1% towards the GDP.

Different sectors of the US Economy are listed below:
  • Mining
  • Finance and Insurance
  • Real Estate, rental and leasing
  • Manufacturing
  • Wholesale Trade
  • Retail Trade
  • Transportation
  • Information
  • Management of companies & enterprises
  • Utilities
  • Construction
  • Administrative, support, waste management & remediation service
  • Educational services
  • Health care & social assistance
  • Arts, entertainment, & recreation
  • Accommodation & food services
  • Other services (except public administration)
  • Professional, scientific, & technical services
The recent global financial crisis has hit the real estate and financial sector of the country. Fall of the sub-prime market has given a big blow to the services sector. The country is currently going through a period of economic recession but is expected to recover soon from this situation. (the statement is about 2009 US economy)


Here is the controversial  portion. I listed all useful Blog, Web news, or message available on Internet that are worthwhile to take a look and think through  it!

Where does the money come from?
Government bankruptcy?
Balance the budget?
What do Bank of America, Citibank and SunTrust Have in Common?
History of U.S. Gov't Bailouts
"If we just gave all the bailout money to taxpayers, how much would we each get?     Answer: $9,513.76
Save the banks by giving consumers cash?
What happens if the stimulus fails?  
Robbing Peter to pay Paul?  
--> at the end, it can mean that the taxes burden are just being pushed off to another generation!

Why wasn't TARP enough?
Another posting about China-Russian Currency agreement

What is current and historical US money supply data in pure ASCII text format.
Where to check official US money supply data
What is current Money Supply measures reported by Federal Reserve
What is historical Money Supply measures reported by Federal Reserve

The coming commodity price nightmare. Commodity price curve for one month and one year!

States in Peril must cut to the bone
Dimon: Let the big dumb banks fail    
In Davos, JP Morgan Chase's Chairman and CEO says that even his own company could and should be dissolved if it failed.

Shell CEO: $50 to $90 oil this year   He made this comment on Feb 1, 2011 | 04:30 on CNN/MONEY channel
Royal Dutch Shell CEO Peter Voser sees oil trading at less than $100 a barrel this year.  Feb 1, 2011 | 04:30
Let us place a note and verify at the end of 2011!

Martin Chu's comment:
March 2 2011, we already saw oil price is over $100.00 already. what is next!

CEOs saw their total compensation rise 28.2% from 2009 to 2010, to a median of $9 million. A few other findings:
Martin Chu's comment:
But what kind of  performance of these SP500 companies from 2009 to 2010.  Do these companies have near 28.2% stock or profit performance?
Their pay seems not link/tie to company's performance at all. I wish I were a SP 500 comapny CEO.

State of the Economy (in 2 mins)   speech from President Obama in 2011

Russia, China lift restrictions on trade in ruble and yuan   from Russian RIA

America's Financial Crisis and its Geopolitical implications by Arevordi
--> Somewhat radical in analysis but please look and check what Arevodi's presented facts and observations. Please also verified with what is happening within US and around the wrold.

PIMCO's Gross dumps U.S. debt  (PIMCO Total Return Fund PTTRX)
Pimco's Total Return Fund (PTTRX), the world's biggest bond fund, slashed its exposure to U.S. government debt to zero last month.  March 10, 2011: 11:44 AM ET  CNNFN
Pimco’s Bill Gross Dumping Treasuries  

Pimco Now Betting Against US Government Debt    Video interview in

Gross's Treasury Dump Has Managers Calling Rally’s End   from

Video in Youtube about Putin's point of view about  ditches dollar, backs Euro on trip to Germany

Major Foreign Holders of United States TREASURY SECURITIES (in billions of dollars) in 12 month period. Do they hold on to US dollars or they stay sway from US dollars? What is the rate of changes?

Is the Fed out of bullets? posted on  (3:59) Apr 27 2011 in

S&P downgrades US debt outlook-On the Edge with Max Keiser-04-29-2011-(Part1)

Very controversial statement from Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC.
--> You go watch, review and  think for yourself! You derive your own conclusion yourself!

Irrational Exuberance Goes Global  The World According to Derivatives: Part 1 of 7   Review in history
--> by Geraldine Perry / September 20th, 2008 in   US stock crashed again in 2009 one year  after this speech. Interesting!  what do you think?  

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